Europe to find it difficult to wean itself off Russian gas

AFP

Europe will have trouble weaning itself off Russian natural gas, analysts say, as its faces declining production at home and Asian competition for supplies.

Even before the current flare up of tensions with Russia over its de facto occupation and possible annexation of Ukraine's Crimea peninsula, Europe has been trying to reduce its dependence on Russian supplies.

The diversification effort has been bearing fruit: imports of Russian natural gas fell from 45.1 percent of the EU's total to 31.9 percent over a decade to 2012, according to data from the EU's statistics agency, Eurostat.

"Europe has reduced somewhat its dependence on Russian gas, even if Gazprom remains a key actor in Europe," said Pascale Jean, a natural gas specialist at PriceWaterhouseCoopers.

However the Russian gas giant Gazprom has made no secret it aims to claw back its market share, having built a new pipeline to Germany and a second one under construction to southern Europe.

The share of Russian gas in European imports climbed last year, and its share in total consumption has remained relatively stable over the past decade at just under a quarter.

However, EU production which currently covers a third of consumption, is expected to fall by up to 20 percent by 2020 and up to 30 percent by 2030.

Trans-Anatolia Gas Pipeline ‘to create15,000 jobs across Turkey’

AA

The Trans-Anatolia Gas Pipeline (TANAP), the gas pipeline project that will carry Azerbaijani natural gas to Europe through Turkey, will create 15,000 jobs in 20 provinces in Turkey, the energy minister has said.

Speaking to reporters on Feb. 28, Energy Minister Taner Yıldız said the TANAP was slated to be carried into effect as of 2018 and would create employment in the cities it will pass through and for the domestic steel pipe makers that will take part in the project.

Yıldız said the total amount of investment planned to be poured into the pipeline is around $45 billion, nearly $30 billion of which will be injected into construction at production sites over a four-year construction period, expected to be started in 2015.

Local steel pipe makers, who have been struggling with tough trade conditions abroad, have pinned their hopes on the project.

The Turkish part of the pipeline will require approximately 1,800 km and approximately 2 million tons of steel pipes. Six of the 18 steel pipe suppliers involved in the project are from Turkey.

The TANAP is planned to carry 16 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas from Azerbaijan’s Shah Deniz II field in the Caspian Sea, one of the world’s largest gas fields.

“We have two hats in the TANAP pipeline: A carrier and a consumer,” Yıldız said.

The energy-hungry Turkey will receive six bcm of natural gas, while 10 bcm, equal to about 1.5 percent of Europe’s total consumption, will flow to Europe.

Turkey’s gas trading hub dream realistic: Oxford Study

Reuters

Turkey’s vision of becoming a gas trading hub is realistic given its diversity of supply but it would need to speed up market reform and invest more in gas infrastructure, an Oxford University study said on Feb. 10.

Turkey has long wanted to have a major power and gas market, capitalizing on growing domestic demand for gas and its proximity to cheap natural gas resources.

It has few natural resources of its own, but is at the centre of nearly all gas pipelines that would link Central Asia to Europe, defining the regional market for decades to come.

Turkey’s rise to prominence in energy markets would also add to its growing influence as a major economic and political player between Central Asia, the Middle East and the European Union, to which Ankara aspires to be a member.

According to state pipeline company BOTAS, Turkish natural gas demand is forecast to grow to 81 billion cubic meters (bcm) a year by 2030 from the current 47 bcm/yr.

It could potentially trade up to 100 bcm of gas a year when large-scale investments in gas infrastructure have taken place, such as new liquefied natural (LNG) gas and storage facilities, said the paper by the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.

Azerbaijan offers Iraq access to Europe gas pipelines

AFP

Azerbaijan has offered Iraq access to the "Southern Gas Corridor" connecting the Caspian Sea to the European Union to help Baghdad sell natural gas to Europe, Baku's foreign minister said Monday.

Elmar Mammadyarov told journalists in the Iraqi capital that officials in Baghdad had already expressed interest in joining the massive project, which is supported by the United States and aims to reduce Europe's dependence on gas from Russia.

"It's a huge project ... and it's open if Iraq is also interested to deliver their own natural gas," Mammadyarov said at a joint news conference with his Iraqi counterpart Hoshyar Zebari.

"The project is there, so if any other countries ... want to join the Southern Gas Corridor, including Iraq, who already expressed some interest for this project, we are ready to start negotiations." Gas pumped from the immense new Shah Deniz II field will travel across Azerbaijan and Georgia and across Turkey through a new Trans-Anatolian Pipeline, which is set to be a key part of the Southern Gas Corridor from the Caspian Sea to Turkey and the EU.

Russia, meanwhile, backs a new pipeline under construction known as South Stream that aims to transport 63 billion cubic metres under the Black Sea to Europe.

Shah Deniz 2 awaits TANAP FID for project commencement

 

Hürriyet Daily News

Al Cook, the Vice President of Shah Deniz Development, emphasizes the importance for TANAP’s key shareholders, Turkey and Azerbaijan, to finalize their decision on investment plans to carry gas.

The Shah Deniz 2 consortium is awaiting the partnership heading the Trans Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline project to make their FID prior to making their own, with the FID required to trigger the execution of plans to develop Azerbaijani gas fields, according to a high level BP executive.

The TANAP oil pipeline will be carrying gas from Azerbaijan through Georgia and Turkey to European markets the year. Talking yesterday at the Atlantic Council summit in Istanbul, Al Cook, the Vice President of Shah Deniz Development, emphasized the importance for TANAP’s key shareholders, Turkey and Azerbaijan, to finalize their decision on investment plans in order for the FID required for the Shah Deniz 2 project to be made.Yet the reverse is also true for TANAP, according to energy experts, who said TANAP is also waiting for the Shah Deniz 2 consortium to make its final investment decision in order for the project to receive the green light.

“Shah Deniz 2 needs to make the FID before the end of the year because they can no longer delay it,” John Roberts, an energy security specialist, told the Daily News. Al Cook expressed confidence that the Shah Deniz 2’s final investment decision will be made before the end of the year, although admitting that “there will be few very busy weeks ahead.”

Russian gas pipeline could doom Europe's Nabucco plan

Reuters


* Europe, U.S. support for Nabucco weakened
* Azeri consortium expected to pick winner in June
* Gas due to flow to European Union from 2019

Europe's grand plan for a gas pipeline from the Caspian Sea that would make its eastern states less reliant on Russia may have been fatally undermined by Russia's even bigger project.

As Azerbaijan nears a decision on which pipeline to choose for its future exports, the Nabucco plan that was long the European Union favourite could lose out to the more modest Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) across Greece to southern Italy.

In a complex equation based on politics as much as economics, TAP is in the ascendancy over the Nabucco pipeline to Austria in the face of Russia's $39 billion South Stream plan.

"The question is: 'Is Nabucco viable if South Stream is built?'" said Andrew Neff, Moscow-based principal energy analyst with research firm IHS.

The decision between TAP and Nabucco is expected in June from partners in the Shah Deniz consortium, led by gas field operator BP and Azeri state energy company Socar.

The European Union won't have a direct say in the choice, but its recent switch to "project neutrality" from support for Nabucco could make a big difference. It now says it would be happy with either pipeline or even both.

"There has been a dramatic shift," TAP's External Affairs Director Michael Hoffmann told Reuters.

Nabucco spokesman Christian Dolezal, however, said his project retained strong political support.

Azerbaijan crucial for Greece to escape economic crisis

Today's Zaman    Lamiya Adılgızı

Greece’s growing interest in the energy resources of Azerbaijan, an oil-booming country on the shores of the Caspian Sea, is down to the belief Azerbaijan’s natural gas could rescue the country from the economic crisis it has been going through if Azerbaijan agrees to export its natural gas through the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline project (TAP), rather than its competitor Nabucco West.

 

Both pipelines fully depend on the same source of gas, Shah Deniz II gas field in Azerbaijan, and will start at the western coast of Turkey and convey the Azeri gas transported via the Turkey-Azerbaijan initiated Trans-Anatolia Pipeline (TANAP) across Turkey to EU markets.

“Greece considers TAP as a good opportunity to recover from its economic crisis and become a strategic energy terminal in the region. In order to materialize its ambition, Athens will try hard to persuade Baku to export TANAP gas through TAP, rather than the Nabucco-West option,” Emre İşeri, energy and security analyst at the İstanbul-based Kadir Has University, said in an interview with Sunday’s Zaman.

Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras paid a visit to Azerbaijan this week on his way back from China, a month after Greek Foreign Minister Dimitris Avramopoulos made a trip to the capital city of Baku for official talks on enhancing cooperation with Baku. The visit by Samaras has attracted a great deal of attention as it is the second high-ranking trip by Greece in a month.

Being received by Azerbaijani President İlham Aliyev in Baku on May 20, both leaders had an opportunity to discuss boosting political, economic and cultural ties. The leaders’ tete-a-tete meeting, which reportedly mainly focused on important opportunities to further strengthen bilateral cooperation, especially in the field of energy, was described by Samara’s as “positive” while briefing Greek President Karolos Papoulias on May 21.

Nabucco West and TAP: Going head to head

Amanda Paul     Today's Zaman


At the end of June, the long-awaited decision regarding which pipeline will be selected to transport natural gas from Azerbaijan’s Shah Deniz II field across Turkey to the EU market will be made.
 

This decision will be followed by the final investment decision in late 2013. Production is expected to begin in 2018 at some 16 billion cubic meters (bcm) per year: 10 bcm for Europe and 6 bcm for Turkey.

Last year the field of runners was narrowed to two: Nabucco West and the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP). The available gas is only enough to fill one of them. Both projects not only have economic but also political implications.

Officials from both Nabucco West and TAP are currently engaged in major lobbying campaigns to promote their respective projects to the Shah Deniz partners, the Azerbaijani government and the developers of the proposed TANAP pipeline across Turkey that would feed into their projects. While the Shah Deniz II Consortium will present their opinion to Azerbaijan over which pipe should be chosen, Azerbaijan is not obliged to follow this advice.

Nabucco West has always been labeled a geostrategic project. It would ship gas from Turkey’s western border via Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary and into the Baumgarten hub in Austria and into Central and Eastern Europe where it is badly needed with many of the countries heavily, or in some cases fully dependent, on Russian gas.

Russia's Energy Bully Takes a Fall

Alexandros Petersen       Foreign Policy

Just a few years ago, Gazprom had Europe eating out of its hand. But now, the energy giant -- and Putin's power base -- looks set for hard times.

After years as Eurasia's energy bully, Russia's state-controlled natural gas monopoly, Gazprom, is getting a taste of its own medicine. Even as Gazprom seeks to build the tallest skyscraper in Europe as its new headquarters in St. Petersburg, pressure from Russia's neighbors led to a 15 percent decline in the company's profits last year, eating into the state budget. Moscow's single-minded focus on gas exports in an effort to become, in the words of President Vladimir Putin, an "energy superpower" has crippled its ability to adapt to profound changes in the global energy landscape -- from the shale gas revolution in North America to the dynamism of new market players such as Azerbaijan. Having spent the last decade making enemies in Central Europe and Central Asia, Gazprom and Russian decision-makers are now reaping what they have sown. 

Policymakers in European capitals could be forgiven for a little schadenfreude right now. Building on the legacy of Soviet gas exports to the Eastern Bloc and parts of Western Europe, Putin and his cohorts in the Kremlin have, for years, used Gazprom as a cudgel in Moscow's relations with European Union member states. Over the past decade, well over a third of EU gas imports have come from Russia, with a number of Eastern European states almost completely dependent on Gazprom. Bulgaria, for example, receives more than 95 percent of the natural gas it consumes from the company. Millions of European consumers shivered through the winters of 2006, 2008, and 2009 when Gazprom cut off supplies in order to squeeze middlemen in Ukraine, Belarus, Georgia, and Moldova who had had the temerity to buck Moscow's policies.

AGRI LNG: Potential for Project High if European Demand Remains Firm

Natural Gas Europe



The Interconnector Azerbaijan-Georgia-Romania-Hungary (AGRI) pipeline project is still possible, and could provide a stimulus for “east Caspian countries” to produce more gas, according to energy specialist Liana Jervalidze.

AGRI, a proposed source of liquid national gas (LNG) to Europe, could be an auxiliary to the major gas pipelines once they come on line in 2018, she said.

“We don’t see now immediately chances for this project to be realized but in ten years time when Shah Deniz Two and TANAP will be implemented and addition volumes of gas will be available in Azerbaijan from other projects…maybe there will be room left for LNG as part of Azerbaijan energy diversity strategy,” she said during the 12^th Georgian International Oil, Gas, Infrastructure & Energy Conference in Tbilisi on March 26.
Jervalidze, a professor at Ilia State University in Tbilisi and Analyst on Geopolitics of Energy, outlined the potential – and the challenges – for the AGRI project during the conference.

AGRI, a joint project between ROMGAZ, Georgian Oil and Gas Corporation, SOCAR, and Hungry’s MVM, could help the European Union met their 2050 goals to diversify types and sources of energy, Jervalidze noted.

If put on line, AGRI would have the potential to bring between 2 bcm and 8 bcm to Europe.

$10-12 bn to be invested in TANAP project

Nearly $10-12 bn is expected to invest in TANAP project.

 

Nearly $10-12 bn is expected to invest in TANAP project, SOCAR President Rovnag Abdullayev said at the meeting with Energy Minister of Turkey Taner Yildiz, APA-Economics reports.

To him, at present time, works are conducted in direction of legal and financial issues of the project: ‘Physical works on TANAP project is expected to start in Q2, 2014’.

TANAP marks revolution in energy history of Azerbaijan and Turkey

Trend AZ

Trans-Anatolian pipeline project (TANAP) marks a revolution in the energy history of Azerbaijan and Turkey, as it will be implemented at the expense of funding and infrastructure of these two countries, the head of SOCAR Turkey Enerji, a board member of Petkim Petrochemical Holding Kenan Yavuz told Trend on Tuesday.

According to Yavuz, it is expected that first construction works within TANAP will start in 2014. And the first delivery of Azerbaijani gas to Turkey will begin already in 2017, he said.

According to the latest estimates, the cost of the TANAP project totals $ 10 billion, Yavuz said.

"At the moment we are negotiating with international companies such as BP, Statoil and Total on assignment of interest in TANAP," he said.