The Middle East Magazine
Israel's apparent rapprochement with
Turkey following US President Barack Obama’s visit in March is being
watched for its impact on several vital political fronts affecting the
region, ranging from the intensifying conflict in Syria and fears about
Iran’s nuclear ambitions to the possibility of a dramatic breakthrough
in efforts to resume peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians.
But
one of its most immediate effects may be to heighten Turkey’s role as
the undisputed hub for the transport of oil and gas from the Eastern
Mediterranean to Europe and possibly on to Asia as well. Such a
development could help to transform the economic prospects of highly
indebted countries such as Jordan, Cyprus, Lebanon and the Palestinian
Territories of the West Bank and Gaza, as well as Israel and Turkey, and
bring with it dramatic new incentives for regional co-operation rather
than conflict.
Equally
important is the fact that Turkey is also embarking on a major
programme to invest in renewable energy sources, including solar and
hydropower, that could transform its energy exports in the future, to
the benefit of consumers in Europe as well as at home. That, together
with the fact that, at least in the medium-term, its gas exports to
Europe, particularly to its southern and eastern countries, could help
to reduce their reliance on both oil and coal – that are far more
polluting than gas – could spell a brighter future for the younger
generations in Europe, as well as in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Israeli
Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s surprise phone call to Turkish
Prime Minister Recip Erdogan on 22 March – in the wake of Obama’s visit –
to apologise for the military action Israel took in boarding the Gaza
flotilla ship Mavi Marmara in international waters three years ago,
leaving nine Turkish citizens dead, is expected to be followed by other
concrete moves to restore relations between Tel Aviv and Ankara. As well
as compensation for the families of the victims, these are expected to
include the exchange of ambassadors and the resumption of talks on
exporting Israeli gas to Turkey, which, despite its key role in the
transport of oil and gas, lacks its own hydrocarbon resources.
The
big prize, however, which is now expected to go ahead, is an underwater
pipeline straddling the entire Eastern Mediterranean coastline. It
would connect the huge new offshore finds in the Levant Basin, which are
estimated to contain some 1,000bn cubic metres of gas, to European
customers via Turkey. This is likely to put an end to current rival
plans by Israel and the Greek Cypriot government in Nicosia to build
their own liquefied natural gas (LNG) plants to transport the gas to
Greece and to customers in China and other parts of Asia and, instead,
link them with the other potential Mediterranean producers – Gaza,
Lebanon, Turkish Cyprus and Syria into a common network that would be
both less costly to build and far more lucrative in terms of export
revenues for the coming decades.
For
Cyprus and Turkey, “gas exploration and export could be the coal and
steel commodity that united France and Germany after the war,” Andrew
Duff, a British member of the European Parliament in Strasbourg, told
the New York Times in late March. He was referring to the
economic alliance formed after the Second World War that reconciled the
two erstwhile enemies and which subsequently formed the basis for
today’s European Union.
“Détente
between Israel and Turkey could make the export of Israeli gas to and
through Turkey feasible,” confirmed Michael Leigh, a senior advisor to
the German Marshall Fund of the United States, the organisation set up
in 1972 to honour the post-war American plan which rebuilt Europe in the
late 1940s and early 1950s and which helped to lay the foundations for
the decades of peace and prosperity that followed. Cyprus’s recent
financial woes, he added, make “a new Israel-Cyprus-Greece Mediterranean
energy corridor or political alignment unlikely. All three countries
should seek ways to co-operate with Turkey in developing the region’s
resources.”
“You
get higher and faster revenues – I estimate €15bn more,” Fiona Mullen,
director of Nicosia-based Sapienta Economics, told the press, “if you
export gas via a pipeline to Turkey, rather than pour money into a
costly and energy-intensive LNG plant that will initially not create
jobs for Cypriots.” The same is likely to apply to Israel, energy
analysts report, if Tel Aviv’s oil and gas partners can avoid building a
proposed LNG plant to transport Mediterranean gas from Israel’s giant
offshore Leviathan field to Asian customers.
The
field, which together with Israel’s nearby Tamar reserves, is estimated
to hold some $240bn worth of gas at current prices, could be linked via
a pipeline to Turkey’s intercontinental energy export network at a
considerably lower price, and be far easier to protect, they and other
analysts note. It would also enable Tel Aviv to use Tamar’s resources to
promote Israel’s own domestic growth by reducing the cost of
electricity for the country’s households and industries, while still
ensuring there is plenty of gas to export cheaply to Jordan and other
Arab countries, as well as to Europe, for years to come.
Turkey
is already a regional hub for the export of gas to central and southern
Europe, both from the Caspian Sea and, via the Black Sea, from Russia,
as well as from the oil-rich Kurdistan region in Iraq. Last autumn,
Istanbul finalised a $7bn contract with Azerbaijan to build TANAP, the
trans Anatolian pipeline connecting the vast Shah Deniz gas field off
the coast of Baku to Europe via Bulgaria and Turkey. Stretching 2,400
miles (3,850km), the link will transport a whopping 16bn cubic metres
(bcm) of gas a year, with the possibility that other supplies – eagerly
pursued by the EU in Brussels – could be added from the rich reserves on
the other side of the Caspian in Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. Turkey
would gain not only from the additional transit revenues a pipeline from
the Eastern Mediterranean to Europe would provide, but would also be
able eventually to import even larger quantities of gas from Lebanon,
Syria, Gaza and, possibly Turkish Cyprus, as well as Israel, thereby
ensuring its own long-term energy supplies for its rapidly growing
industries. The expansion of Turkey’s role as a truly intercontinental
energy hub would also, analysts say, cement its role as the future
centre of a vast web of petrochemical complexes, refineries, export
terminals, storage facilities, power plants and industrial zones ready
to serve both Europe and the Middle East, as well as Central Asia and
the Caucasus.
In
February, even before Netanyahu’s apology, the Turkish conglomerate,
the Zorlu Group, was reported to be discussing plans with Israeli
officials and the partners in the Leviathan field, who include Noble
Energy of the US and Australia’s Woodside Petroleum, to lay a subsea
pipeline to southern Turkey. It would have a capacity of between 8-10bn
cubic metres of gas a year, according to the reports. The field, which
is located about 130kms off the coast of Haifa, is thought to contain at
least 425bn cubic metres of gas, and pos- sibly substantial oil
deposits as well.
Erdogan’s
visit to Washington in mid-May for talks with President Obama will
include discussions on further measures to consolidate the rapprochement
between Tel Aviv and Istanbul, US officials say, and this in turn is
helping to support a growing view among oil and gas industry experts
that the pipeline will go ahead in one form or another. The severe
austerity measures facing both Greece and the Greek Cypriots are also
raising doubts among foreign investors about their ability to finance an
expensive LNG alternative.
Lebanon,
which has opened bids for its share of the Levant Basin reserves, like
Syria, could benefit substantially from such a link, analysts say, not
only because it would enable the country to export to Europe relatively
cheaply, but also because it would gain transit revenues from a pipeline
that has to pass through its territorial waters. So far, some 50
international oil companies have expressed an interest in developing
Lebanon’s reserves, which are estimated at a minimum of 8 trillion cubic
feet, and possibly as much as 25 trillion cubic feet – a size which
would make them comparable to Israel’s. But, analysts caution, its own
internal political divisions are holding up progress both on exploration
and on investment. Lebanon’s influential militant Islamic group,
Hizbullah, is also highly unlikely to want to be involved in a regional
project that involves Israel.
Elsewhere
in the region, one unexpected beneficiary of the new energy geopolitics
sweeping the region could be the Turkish Cypriot government which has
been excluded from Greek Cyprus’s exploration plans due to the divisions
on the island and the lack of international recognition of the Turkish
Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC). Turkey’s Foreign Minister, Ahmet
Davutoglu, has launched a new proposal aimed at setting up a conference
of Turkey, Greece and the two community leaders in Cyprus to resolve the
division, which has existed for more than four decades. It is currently
being considered by the UN Security Council, as well as the proposed
conference members, and was reportedly discussed by US Secretary of
State John Kerry during his visit to Istanbul in April.
Dervis
Eroglu, President of the TNRC, said earlier this year that he had asked
Greek Cypriot officials to assess the profits made from the island’s
hydrocarbon wealth and to put the TNRC’s share in a separate bank
account. “I suggested that we use that money to sort out the economic
challenges once we decide on the terms of the unification of the
island,” he added. Although that proposal was turned down, Eroglu
confirmed, it is now expected to be re-considered, both because of
Cyprus’ economic difficulties and because of Turkey’s more influential
role in the region’s energy equation.
Palestine
and the Palestinian people could be yet another beneficiary, at least
in the medium-term, industry sources report. The Levant Basin includes
reserves located off the coast of Gaza which were discovered in 2000 by
the British gas group, BG which, along with its partners – Lebanon’s
Consolidated Contractors Company and the Palestine Investment Fund – has
sought unsuccessfully since then to develop them.
The
reserves, which are estimated to total some 30bn cubic feet of gas,
would be enough to supply Palestine’s needs for several years and could
help to ensure a supply of affordable electricity to develop its private
sector and provide much needed jobs for the Palestinian population.
Israeli
media sources reported in March that Israel has re-opened talks with BG
on exploiting the reserves and those in the nearby Noa South reservoir
to compensate for the shortfalls in its supplies from Egypt. Erdogan’s
growing ties with the Hamas government in Gaza and Turkey’s eagerness to
press Israel to lift the siege on Gaza are topics that are also likely
to come up during the Turkish President’s visit to Washington, regional
officials say.
Given
the Obama Administration’s concern to re- start peace negotiations
between Israel and the Palestinians, plans to include the Palestinian
Authority in Ramallah, as well as Hamas, in ways to exploit the gas
reserves are likely to be included in the agenda for the bi-lateral
talks between Obama and Erdogan, the officials add. Success in these
discussions could provide a source of economic wealth and future
prosperity for the Palestinians that would relieve some of the financial
pressures on the Palestinian Authority and help to underpin any
peaceful settlement, other analysts note.
Whatever
the outcome of the regional talks on transporting the Eastern
Mediterranean’s gas to European and/or Asian markets, it appears that
the new accords between Israel and Turkey are already transforming the
economic prospects for millions of the region’s inhabitants. If all goes
well, they could help to ensure that the area’s newfound riches are
developed peacefully, rather than being a source of future conflict.
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