Standard & Poor's
S&P EMEA Chief Economist Jean-Michel Six says Turkish economy is on a sustained path to recovery.
The Turkish economy saw the wind knocked out of its billowing sails in 2012, but it is making something of a
comeback in 2013. Standard & Poor's Ratings Services expects the real economy to expand by about 4% this year--nearly double the rate of growth of 2012, but well below what we believe were unsustainably high growth rates in 2010-2011. Trends in global trade should provide a boost to Turkey's economy, given the way the country's export market shares have evolved over the past 10 years. Meanwhile, private consumption and fixed investment are likely to bounce back this year and next, after some retrenchment in 2012.
Against this positive backdrop, continued expansionary monetary policies in the G7 and especially in Japan, could present renewed challenges for the Turkish central bank: namely, strong capital inflows into the country could spark a surge in asset prices, as they have done in the past. What's more, amid stronger domestic demand, the country's current account deficit is likely to widen this year and inflation could overshoot the central bank's target. In suc circumstances, we believe the central bank could well be forced to maintain a difficult balancing act between the demand for growth and monetary stability.
Overview
· The Turkish economy appears to be on a sustained path to recovery, owing to strong growth in its main export
markets outside of Europe, improved prospects for consumer demand, and solid investment growth.
· This recovery, however, could amplify existing external and inflatonary risks, and we forecast that Turkey's
current account deficit will widen this year to about 7% of GDP.
· However, in a complex global financial environment, we believe the central bank will not raise its policy rate
earlier than the start of 2014.
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