The Economist
The governments of Turkey, Iraq and Iraqi Kurdistan play a dangerous game
SNAKING their way from Kirkuk, a city 240 kilometres (150 miles)
north of Baghdad, through Kurdistan and across Turkey’s eastern region
of Anatolia to the Mediterranean are pipes that once carried 1.6m
barrels a day (b/d) of Iraqi oil to the global market and yielded fat
transit fees to Turkey along the way. The infrastructure underpinned the
two countries’ mutual dependence. But nowadays the balance of power has
shifted. A third party, the Iraqi Kurds, has changed it. It is unclear
who will emerge on top. But Iraq’s central government in Baghdad is on
the defensive.
Wars, saboteurs and, since the 1990s, economic sanctions have left
the Iraqi sections of the pipeline system in a mess. Barely a fraction
of its capacity is used. One of the two parallel lines stands empty and
the source that once fed them, the giant Kirkuk oilfield, is
dilapidated. The oil ministry in Baghdad has vague ideas about revamping
the pipeline, perhaps to carry crude extracted near Basra, in the far
south, though this would need an expensive new pipeline to link both
ends of the country.
But Turkey is hatching a different plan for its section of the
Kirkuk-to-Ceyhan pipeline. Its souring relations with the government in
Baghdad have spurred it to cultivate new ties with the Iraqi Kurds’
regional government in Erbil, which oversees the oil and gas that
Turkey’s growing economy craves. A wide-ranging energy deal is in the
works that will see state-backed Turkish firms and Western oil majors
plough money into Kurdish infrastructure and oilfields, connecting them
to Turkey and the world beyond. The deal could eventually allow for up
to 2m b/d of Kurdish oil exports to go through Turkey.
Last year, trade between Turkey and Iraqi Kurdistan amounted to $8
billion. Turkish money has paid for pristine airports in Erbil and
Dohuk, an Iraqi Kurdish city further north, and for other large
projects. Not long ago, Turkish politicians, wary of their own large and
restless Kurdish minority still fighting for autonomy (or more) in
eastern Turkey, barely acknowledged Iraq’s autonomous Kurdish region.