Daniel WAGNER* & Giorgio CAFIERO** CounterPunch
Ankara will soon be confronted with some difficult foreign policy
decisions that could affect its long-term energy interests. The
discovery of vast reserves of natural gas off the coasts of Cyprus and
Israel could oblige Turkey to resolve longstanding disputes with its
neighbours.
Turkey has managed to maintain impressive growth rates over the past
decade in spite of a lack of indigenous sources of energy. Ankara has
pursued a foreign policy aimed at diversifying the country’s energy
imports while simultaneously positioning itself as a major energy hub.
Turkey’s geostrategic position makes achieving this dual objective
challenging, but it has managed to strike a balance between being
assertive and deferential in acquiring and managing its energy supply.
While the Turkish government’s power to influence events in the region
is of course limited, it will be compelled to make some difficult
foreign policy decisions in the near term that could substantially
impact its long-term energy interests.Turkey imports 91 percent of its oil and 98 percent of its natural gas. In 2011, approximately 51 percent of its oil came from Iran and 55 percent of its natural gas from Russia. Iraq’s resurrection as a major oil and gas exporter to the world offers Turkey an opportunity to become an increasingly influential energy hub between the Arabian Gulf and European markets. However, the tense triangular relationship between Turkey, Iraq and the Kurdish Regional Government has greatly complicated the energy trade with Iraq. This has also cast doubt about the long-term reliability of the Iraqi-Turkish pipeline that exports nearly 400,000 barrels per day to the important port of Ceyhan in southern Turkey. Turkey’s perennial battle with Kurdish separatists has served to ensure that the relationship with Iraq remains problematic and uncertain.
