These three energy pipelines could shake up geopolitics

Steve Le Vine        QUARTZ

Three of the most volatile parts of the Middle East—Iran, Iraq and Israel—are the scene of oil and gas initiatives that could shake up geopolitics there and beyond. The efforts center on three energy pipelines, at least two of which seem likely to be built.

The first is an attempt by Iran to supply Pakistan with natural gas. On March 11, Pakistani President Asif Zardari and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad inaugurated the construction of a new section of a proposed 1,200-mile pipeline connecting the two countries. Iran claims its own section of the line is almost finished, starting from the giant South Pars natural gas field—the world’s largest—and going to the border with Pakistan. The ceremony marked the start of construction of the 485-mile Pakistani leg. Iran is offering $500 million in finance toward the estimated $1.5 billion cost of the Pakistan portion, according to the Pakistanis.

If the pipeline is successful—the longest shot of the three considering Western-led sanctions against Iran—it will provide an economic jolt for gas-starved Pakistan. If the line is extended to India, it could also help to soften India-Pakistani friction, the underlying cause of South Asian instability. It also would create a new economic belt stretching from the Middle East to the depths of the subcontinent.

Iraq and Iran’s Oil Pipeline Politics

Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline Ceremony 11 March 2013. (Photo: Mian Khursheed)

 Elie Chalhoub    Al Akhbar English

Away from the region’s headlines and wars, plans are being methodically put in place that could redraw the strategic map of the Middle East, erasing one of the region’s key colonial-era features.

Recent moves by Iran and Iraq to press ahead with the construction of a series of new oil and gas export pipelines could be attributed to Iran’s bid to counter international sanctions. The planned pipelines could also reflect Iraq’s economic recovery or perhaps pressure from oil companies for new export routes.

There may be some truth to these explanations. But a closer look makes clear that these schemes are related.

The short-term aims are evident. They include trying to lure Jordan into the region’s “resistance” axis and reducing American influence on Iran’s eastern neighbor Pakistan.

But the long-term objective is more ambitious: to connect the Middle East by way of a web of economic ties that binds them into a regional partnership whose mainstays are Iran and Iraq.

Baghdad is making it increasingly clear where it stands in terms of its regional alignment. In recent months, it has openly supported Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Damascus, clashed with Ankara, reached out to Cairo, and been at odds with Riyadh and Doha.