The Turkey - Russia - Iran Nexus: Eurasian Power Dynamics

Stephen J. Flanagan      The Washington Quarterly

Complex and often contradictory interactions among Turkey, Russia, and Iran are shaping regional dynamics in the Middle East, Caucasus, and Central Asia. The nexus of the three pairs of relations are influencing each country’s dealings with the other two, as well as with the United States, and are whipsawed by events on the ground that continue to surprise leaders of these three historic rivals. Starkly differing policies toward the Syrian civil war and the Arab Awakening have strained Ankara’s previously cooperative relations with Moscow and Tehran.

Understanding these dynamics is essential to avoiding a wider war in the Middle East, renewed conflict in the Caucasus, and instability in Central Asia following the withdrawal of NATO forces from Afghanistan. Moreover, with the proxy war in Syria deepening and the prospect of Israeli military strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities, the Middle East is reaching a tipping point unless the United States and the international community are able to work with these three powers to broker a political transition in Syria and a resolution of the Iranian nuclear crisis, which would otherwise have devastating consequences for regional stability and the global economy.

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Source: The Washington Quarterly

Turkey is economic winner of Iraq war

Daniel Dombey     Financial Times

ISTANBUL — The Americans won the war, the Iranians won the peace and the Turks won the contracts.

Turkey, which blocked the deployment of U.S. troops through its territory during the 2003 invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein, is emerging 10 years on as one of the prime beneficiaries of the battle for the Iraqi market.

Although Turkey’s relations with Baghdad are increasingly bitter, its exports to Iraq have in the past decade soared by more than 25 percent a year, reaching $10.8 billion in 2012, making Iraq Ankara’s second-most valuable export market after Germany.

Ozgur Altug, an economist at BGC Partners in Istanbul, predicts that as Iraq grows richer because of its oil reserves, demand for Turkish goods will keep climbing — by more than $2 billion a year. Turkish contractors have also been doing rich business, working on about $3.5 billion of construction projects last year, according to businessmen and officials.

One company, Calik Energy, boasts that it is building the two biggest projects in the Iraqi power sector, two gas turbine plants in the Mosul and Karbala regions, earning more than $800 million from the Iraqi government in the process.

While Iran is seen as the most influential outside power in Iraq today, on Baghdad’s streets Turkey’s presence is more visible than that of any other country, with everything from malls to furniture stores to pavement bricks bearing a Turkish trademark.

Ankara sees Iran hand in Iraq tensions

Serkan Demirtaş     Hürriyet Daily News

Turkey believes Tehran is behind the Iraqi PM’s recent challenge to Vice President al-Hashimi as it hopes to protect its regional hegemony in the wake of an international campaign against its closest regional ally, Syria. 

An Iraqi political crisis stemming from the Shiite prime minister’s move against the Sunni vice president has rung alarm bells in Ankara, which believes Iran is orchestrating the events to protect its regional hegemony.

Although already deeply involved in the turmoil in Syria, Turkish diplomats have now placed Iraq at the top of their agenda out of fears that instability in its southeastern neighbor could endanger its political and security interests in the region.

A day after the last U.S. soldier was withdrawn from Iraq earlier this week, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki issued an arrest warrant for Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi, potentially igniting a fresh conflict between the country’s two largest sectarian groups. The move caused concerns in neighboring countries and the United States about regional stability in the Middle East, which has already been shaken by developments in Syria.

Iran Seizes Opportune Moment to Project Naval Power

Abhijit SINGH     World Politics Review

In an extraordinary development, Iran deployed submarines to the Red Sea last week, prompting fears that the Islamic Republic is engaging in another brazen show of strength. Although Tehran has long been convinced of its regional supremacy, this is the first time that Iranian submarines have been sent into the Red Sea -- previously off-limits to Iranian naval ships. Reports suggest the submarines are accompanying warships of the Iranian navy's 14th Fleet, with the ostensible purpose of their mission to collect data in international waters and carry out surveillance against suspicious activity. But there might be more to the deployment than meets the eye.

Iran's naval forces have become visibly proactive in recent months. Its warships have ventured outside the Persian Gulf and well beyond Tehran's traditional maritime sphere of influence. In February, two Iranian warships, the frigate Alvand and the tanker Kharg, sailed through the Suez Canal on an unprecedented visit to Syria, provoking a sharp reaction from Israel. Egypt, keen to signal a shift in policy in the post-Mubarak era, allowed the warships to pass through the waterway -- a move widely interpreted as reflecting Cairo's desire to re-establish ties with Tehran severed 30 years ago. ...

Source:
http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/9153/iran-seizes-opportune-moment-to-project-naval-power