Erdogan tours revolutionary countries as he looks to build power.
The Turkish Prime Minister, Tayyip Erdogan, arrived
in Egypt yesterday at the start of a three-nation tour as Turkey
toughens its stance towards Israel and seeks to become the predominant
power among Muslim states in the Middle East and North Africa.
After Egypt, Mr Erdogan will visit Tunisia and
Libya to show Turkey's support for both countries after the overthrow of
long-standing police states in the Arab Spring. Turkey's strong,
democratic and mildly Islamic regime makes it a model for new
governments in all three countries.
Mr Erdogan's
assertive and critical attitude towards Israel, until recently a close
ally of Turkey, makes him attractive to the Arab world. In Cairo, the
burning down of the Israeli embassy last weekend was the latest incident
marking the hostility at street level between post-Mubarak Egyptians
and Israel.
At the same time, the perception among Arab states
that President Barack Obama has failed to help the Palestinians, while
lending Israel his total support, has diminished US popularity and
influence in the region.
Mr Erdogan said in an
interview before leaving for Cairo that he had seen "grounds for war"
against Israel last year after nine Turks had been killed by Israeli
commandos on the Turkish aid ship Mavi Marmara bound for Gaza, but had
"decided to act with patience". He hinted that in future the Turkish
navy would protect any Turkish aid flotilla going to Gaza.
"Turkey
will get most of what it wants if it does not overplay its hand," said
one commentator. Turkey has already imposed sanctions on Israel in
retaliation for the aid-boat raid, but according to his aides Mr Erdogan
appears to have abandoned, for the moment, his declared long-term
intention to visit Gaza.
Turkey has benefited
from the Arab Spring because it is likely to be in tune with new
democratic governments, even when it had good relations with their
predecessors.
The country can also move to fill
a vacuum since most of the more powerful Arab states, such as Egypt and
Syria, are weaker than they were before their governments were
overthrown. Iraq has never recovered from the rule of Saddam Hussein and
the violence that followed.
In sharp contrast
to Iran, Turkey has few serious enemies. It has sought to mediate over
Iran's nuclear programme between the Iranian government, which it
regards with suspicion, and the US and Europeans. The two countries also
have a common foe in the shape of festering Kurdish insurgencies which
engage in persistent guerrilla attacks. An attack by Kurdistan Workers
Party (PKK) guerrillas in Hakkani Province in eastern Turkey overnight
killed five people, including two security men.
The
PKK has killed about 50 Turkish security personnel in recent weeks
since it ended its ceasefire earlier in the year. Although Mr Erdogan
has brought the Turkish army under civilian control, his government does
not want to look weak in any confrontation with the PKK.
It
is putting pressure on the Iraqi Kurdish President, Massoud Barzani, to
isolate the PKK from its mountain strongholds inside Iraq. Mr Barzani,
who would like Turkey as a counter-balance to Baghdad, has demanded in
recent days that the PKK and the Kurdish guerrilla movement in Iran give
up armed resistance.
Turkey has been playing
an increasingly influential role in Iraqi politics because it is able to
mediate between different parties, sects and ethnic groups. It also
plays a growing commercial role: Turkish companies have even won
contracts to collect the rubbish in Baghdad and Basra.
In
Syria, Mr Erdogan has criticised President Bashar al-Assad's repression
of protests, probably calculating that his regime is not going to
survive, at least in its present form. Similarly in Libya, Turkey was at
first slow to break with Colonel Muammar Gaddafi, but when it did so,
it advanced $300m to the rebels at a time when they were short of money.
Turkey was heavily involved in construction in Libya.
Overall,
the isolation of Israel, the democratic uprisings in the Arab world,
the weakness of the Arab states, and the diminished strength of the US
in the region have all worked to Turkey's advantage.
Its influence is growing throughout the region but it is a long way from being in control of events.
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