Can Turkey inspire Egypt?

Mustafa ABDELHALIM*   AL ARABIYA

CAIRO - Last week, Egyptians went to the polls to participate in the first presidential election since Mubarak's downfall in February 2011. Going forward, the new president, who will be elected in the second phase of elections in June, should look to examples from other countries that have undergone successful democratic transitions.

When asked what leader outside their own country they most admired, a recent poll from the University of Maryland found that 63 percent of Egyptians answered Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, indicating that Egyptians may be interested in learning from Turkey. Turkey can serve as a relevant model because it has successfully dealt with three key challenges facing Egypt – the relationship of the army to a civilian government, economic growth and fostering positive international relations.

In terms of the first of these issues, Egypt is currently struggling with what role the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) should play in the new government, and how much power it should hold. While the situations of Egypt and Turkey are different, Turkey provides a useful model when it comes to checking the army’s power through the rule of law, rather than violence.

Turkey rides WEF bandwagon into the Middle East

Roula KHALAF    FINANCIAL TIMES

The World Economic Forum for the Middle East is usually held in an Arab capital and the usual controversy is over how many Israelis show up. This year, there are so many different Arab worlds, one in political transition away from autocracy, the other still solidly autocratic, and the third profoundly troubled by the old conflicts.

That is part of the reason we are in Istanbul, where 1,000 business and political leaders are gathered for a WEF that is now “on the Middle East, north Africa and Eurasia.” The other might be that the WEF has come where Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s prime minister, will no longer tread – he vowed never to return to Davos after storming off stage in 2009 in a heated debate on Gaza.


The three faces of the Arab world are all well represented here – the new is Tunisia, whose Islamist prime minister, Hammadi Jebali, this morning delivered a speech urging regional states and companies to put their money, and faith, in the nascent democracy. Opening remarks were also made by Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian prime minister, who lamented the moribund peace process and the continuing Israeli occupation but also took the opportunity to tell fellow Arabs and Turks that Palestine is open for business. Investment, he said, consolidates the “steadfastedness” of the Palestinian people and promotes peace.

Turkey tries out soft power in Somalia

Richard LOUGH    REUTERS


* Ankara wields soft power, hard cash in stricken state
* Famine in Somalia sparked huge Turkish relief effort
* Somali PM calls Turkey "Holy Grail" for his country
* Somalia part of Turkish Africa strategy


MOGADISHU, (Reuters) - In a sprawl of plastic refugee shelters and mortar-blasted buildings in Mogadishu, a mud-caked Turkish engineering team monitors the drilling of a new borehole while their armed guards chat lazily under a tree, guns across laps.

These government contractors are on the frontline of a huge Turkish development effort in one of the world's most dangerous cities - one which U.N. agencies and international charities prefer to deal with from the safety of neighbouring Kenya.

Across the Somali capital, a bombed-out shell after two decades of fighting, residents say Turkey has done more in eight months to shatter the perception that Mogadishu is a no-go zone than the international community has achieved in twenty years.

"Our government likes to help anyone in crisis so we came here without thinking anything," said the lead engineer, Mehmet, who asked Reuters to use a pseudonym because government employees are not authorised to talk to the media without permission.

The retreat of al Qaeda-linked rebels from the city in August ended the daily street battles and shelling between the militants and African troops, and offered a rare chance to ramp up aid as a famine gripped central and southern Somalia.

Some 500 Turkish relief workers and volunteers poured into Mogadishu's bullet-scarred wastelands, unleashing a wave of humanitarian aid as the militants struck back with a string of suicide bombings and roadside blasts.

"Of course it is dangerous but we don't think about those things. Inshallah, nothing has happened to us. If we are afraid, we can't operate," the engineer said

Turkish flags - white crescent moon and star on red background - flutter in the coastal breeze and billboards marking out Turkish reconstruction projects dot the capital, where potholed streets are lined by rubble-strewn ruins and mountains of garbage.

South Korea revisits Turkish nuclear power plant bid

Ümit ENGINSOY       Hürriyet Daily News

South Korea has decided not to require Turkey to provide treasury loans, which was the main obstacle preventing the two sides from reaching a final deal on Turkey’s second nuclear deal two years ago, a South Korean official said May 25.

Treasury loans are guarantees to finance well-defined and time-limited business when a country cannot fund the very high costs of a project with its own resources. Turkey’s program to build a nuclear power plant in the northern province of Sinop would cost between $10 billion and $20 billion depending on whether the plant will have two or four reactors.

Turkey and South Korea came close to an agreement on Turkey’s northern nuclear plant in November 2010, but could not agree mainly because of the treasury loans issue. Turkey then launched rival talks with Japan, but these were delayed last year because of the Fukushima disaster. The Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster was a series of equipment failures, nuclear meltdowns and releases of radioactive materials at a power plant, resulting from a very strong earthquake and tsunami.

Because of the disaster, Turkey is now engaged in competing talks with Japan, South Korea, China and Canada to build the Sinop nuclear power plant.

“Kepco is much keener about the Turkish deal than it was two years ago, when we could not reach a deal at the last moment,” the South Korean official said. “Kepco has desisted from requiring the treasury loan. It also has agreed to help Turkey find a loan in the international credit markets.”

Iraqi Kurdistan to push ahead with oil export plan

REUTERS

New pipeline to Turkey will open in August, deepening Iraq's broader crisis over power-sharing and the economy

Iraq's autonomous Kurdistan region said on Sunday it expects to start exporting its crude oil along a new pipeline to the Turkish border by August 2013, defying Baghdad in a long-running dispute over who controls the country's oil sales.

The Kurdistan region, which has its own government and armed forces, has already clashed with Iraq's central government over autonomy and oil rights, and halted its crude exports in April after accusing Baghdad of not making due payments.


 "In August 2013 we will be able to directly export crude from the Kurdish region's fields," Hawrami said at an oil conference in Kurdistan on Sunday. "We will be responsible for exporting oil. It will still be Iraqi oil." 
The dispute between Baghdad and the Kurdish capital Arbil is part of a broader political crisis in Iraq, where a fragile government amoung Shi'ite, Sunni and Kurdish blocs is struggling to overcome deep splits over power-sharing. 


Baghdad says only the central government's oil authorities have the right to control oil exports, and dismisses contracts signed with the Kurdistan Regional Government as illegal, while the KRG says it has the right to develop its own oil fields.

The energy wars heat up

Michael KLARE*     Le Monde Diplomatique

Six recent clashes and conflicts on a planet heading into energy overdrive

Conflict and intrigue over valuable energy supplies have been features of the international landscape for a long time. Major wars over oil have been fought every decade or so since World War I, and smaller engagements have erupted every few years; a flare-up or two in 2012, then, would be part of the normal scheme of things. Instead, what we are now seeing is a whole cluster of oil-related clashes stretching across the globe, involving a dozen or so countries, with more popping up all the time. Consider these flash-points as signals that we are entering an era of intensified conflict over energy.

From the Atlantic to the Pacific, Argentina to the Philippines, here are the six areas of conflict — all tied to energy supplies — that have made news in just the first few months of 2012:

* A brewing war between Sudan and South Sudan: On April 10th, forces from the newly independent state of South Sudan occupied the oil center of Heglig, a town granted to Sudan as part of a peace settlement that allowed the southerners to secede in 2011. The northerners, based in Khartoum, then mobilized their own forces and drove the South Sudanese out of Heglig. Fighting has since erupted all along the contested border between the two countries, accompanied by air strikes on towns in South Sudan. Although the fighting has not yet reached the level of a full-scale war, international efforts to negotiate a cease-fire and a peaceful resolution to the dispute have yet to meet with success.

Turkey to start northern Cyprus drilling

UPI 


Turkey will start drilling for oil and gas in northern Cyprus this month despite opposition from Greek Cypriots, the north's energy minister says.

Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus Economy and Energy Minister Sunat Atun said Tuesday in Istanbul that the Turkish Petroleum Corp. will launch the land-based drilling initiative at the end of April, the Anatolian News Agency reported.

"Drilling will be launched in one area now but it could be extended if the need arises," Atun said, adding that Turkish Energy and Natural Resources Minister Taner Yildiz would attend a ceremony to mark the launch the effort.

The announcement came amid growing tensions in the eastern Mediterranean between Turkey and Greek Cypriots after Nicosia last year began natural gas and oil exploration in its own exclusive economic zone.

Ankara, in response, deployed warships to the area, and, in a tit-for-tat move, signed an agreement with the Turkish Cypriots to delineate the continental shelf between the two counties -- although Turkey is the only country that recognizes the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus -- with the aim of enabling Turkish Petroleum to carry out seismic research and offshore oil exploration.

Thailand, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia and Turkey make their mark in Africa

Keyur PATEL      The Financial Times

The Bric countries are making headlines in Africa but when it comes to doing business there are plenty of other emerging economies that are also digging deep into the fast-growing continent.
Standard Bank highlights the EM 10 – ten emerging economies that have seen their trade triple in the last decade to $330bn. The big four are the Brics, with a $250bn share in 2011, but the remaining six states between them account for a full $80bn – and are seeing their activities grow faster than the Brics.
The six states include two African nations, Nigeria and South Africa, which is a bit of a cheat. The others won’t come as a surprise to beyondbrics readers -  Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Thailand, and Turkey. But it’s worth noting how diverse Africa’s trade is becoming.

Standard Bank analyst Simon Freemantle wrote in a research note on Friday:

"The BRIC thesis, while neatly encapsulated in a powerful acronym, has become increasingly insufficient in explaining the broad sweep of new partnerships Africa is forging in a postcrisis world. Other large, fast-growing and dynamic emerging markets are increasingly partnering Africa’s commercial reinvigoration"

“Insufficient” might be a bit of a stretch. Standard Bank’s research shows that China, India and Brazil make up more than three-quarters of Africa’s trade with the EM 10 – China alone accounts for almost half. (Russia, by comparison, is relatively small).

                                         Sources: COMTRADE Standard Bank Research

Azerbaijan Makes Massive Israeli Weapons Purchase -- But Not Because Of Iran

Joshua KUCERA    EurasiaNet

Azerbaijan has agreed to buy $1.6 billion in weapons from Israel, a massive deal that is likely Azerbaijan's largest single arms purchase ever. The deal will include drones, anti-aircraft and missile defense systems, Israeli officials have told news agencies. The deal would be almost equal to Azerbaijan's stated 2012 defense budget of $1.7 billion (though will certainly be spread out over many years).
The timing of the deal is misleading: regardless of the ongoing ratcheting up of tension between Israel and Iran, and increasing attention to Israel's intelligence activities in Azerbaijan, these weapons are destined to be used not against Iran, but against Armenia, which controls the breakaway Azerbaijani territory of Nagorno Karabakh. Though it's tempting to think otherwise. The AP reports:

Israeli defense officials Sunday confirmed $1.6 billion in deals to sell drones as well as anti-aircraft and missile-defense systems to Azerbaijan, bringing sophisticated Israeli technology to the doorstep of archenemy Iran.
The sales by state-run Israel Aerospace Industries come at a delicate time. Israel has been laboring hard to form diplomatic alliances in a region that seems to be growing increasingly hostile to the Jewish state.
Its most pressing concern is Iran's nuclear program, and Israeli leaders have hinted broadly they would be prepared to attack Iranian nuclear facilities if they see no other way to keep Iran from building bombs...
As Iran's nuclear showdown with the West deepens, the Islamic Republic sees the Azeri frontier as a weak point, even though both countries are mostly Shiite Muslim.

Israel – Iran Military Comparison

 Iran Israel Military Comparison (2011)

Iran Israel Military Comparison (2)

Source: http://www.globalfirepower.com/